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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$220.27

Combined PnL

-$192.27

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$213.2

Down5 traders

Total Value$117.77

Total Shares118

Combined PnL+$20.92

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$133.26	$102.5	-$30.76	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$69.69	—	-$69.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$63.58	$102.5	+$38.92
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 18.1¢	$51.47	—	-$51.47	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$64.44	$65.13	+$0.7	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$56.19	—	-$56.19	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$63.61	—	-$63.61	51% 10412-9893 (20305)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 34.2¢	$36	—	-$36	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$22.5	$21.52	+$1.87	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$7.1	$10.71	+$3.61	55% 51597-42791 (94388)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$3.15	—	-$3.15	56% 60462-47011 (107473)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 26.3¢	$5.26	$20	+$14.74	65% 114511-61547 (176058)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 13.8¢	$1.34	—	-$1.34	61% 98514-62493 (161007)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$0.4	$0.4	+$0	74% 105016-37056 (142072)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44	66% 130543-67485 (198028)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$133.26

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$30.76

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

Both legs:

Up$69.6947.8¢-$69.69

Down$63.5862¢+$38.92

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$51.47

Value

—

PnL

-$51.47

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

Invested

$64.44

Value

$65.13

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$56.19

Value

—

PnL

-$56.19

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$63.61

Value

—

PnL

-$63.61

Record

51%

10412-9893 (20305)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

—

PnL

-$36

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$21.52

PnL

+$1.87

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$3.61

Record

55%

51597-42791 (94388)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

—

PnL

-$3.15

Record

56%

60462-47011 (107473)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$20

PnL

+$14.74

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

—

PnL

-$1.34

Record

61%

98514-62493 (161007)

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0

Record

74%

105016-37056 (142072)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

—

PnL

-$1.44

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x39209f5d...13c166

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1793992800

Traders in this Market

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $65.13

13897651

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $21.52

MayorMamdani

Down — $10.71

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $20

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