Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (40%) · Down at 99¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 9

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 40%

Total Value

$306.6

Combined PnL

-$58.36

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 98.7¢

+40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$235.33

Total Shares471

Combined PnL-$95.84

Up3 traders

Total Value$71.27

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$37.49

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69¢	$296.29	$214.83	-$81.45	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 19.1¢	$14.91	$39	+$24.1	—
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$17.62	$21.77	+$4.15	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 85.1¢	$34.89	$20.5	-$14.39	—
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.26	$10.5	+$9.24	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$296.29

Value

$214.83

PnL

-$81.45

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$14.91

Value

$39

PnL

+$24.1

Record

—

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$17.62

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$4.15

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$34.89

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$14.39

Record

—

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$9.24

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.