Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (20%) · Up at 100¢ · $236 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 20%
$236.23
$10.24
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $152.62 | $177.47 | +$29.95 | — |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $57.57 | $50.23 | -$7.34 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $7.91 | $8.42 | +$0.5 | — |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $8.1 | $0.1 | -$8 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.2¢ | $4.9 | $0.02 | -$4.88 | — |
Invested
$152.62
Value
$177.47
PnL
+$29.95
Record
—
Invested
$57.57
Value
$50.23
PnL
-$7.34
Record
—
Invested
$7.91
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$0.5
Record
—
Invested
$8.1
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$8
Record
—
Invested
$4.9
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.88
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.