Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Potenza Calcio vs. Scafatese Calcio 1922: O/U 3.5
Resolved Over. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Under 83%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$944.57
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $1.2K | $534.23 | -$691.27 | 49% 4676-4943 (9619) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70¢ | $999.62 | — | -$999.62 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42.3¢ | $225.88 | $534.23 | +$308.35 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 49.6¢ | $721.96 | $1.0K | +$278.88 | 52% 2494-2286 (4780) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.6¢ | $496.43 | $1.0K | +$504.41 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $225.53 | — | -$225.53 | |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $482.24 | — | -$482.24 | 54% 6019-5096 (11115) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 57¢ | $320 | — | -$320 | 65% 353-190 (543) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $139.22 | — | -$139.22 | 38% 1348-2243 (3591) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $5.7 | $5.88 | +$0.18 | 49% 1336-1411 (2747) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $2.13 | — | -$2.13 | 83% 978-205 (1183) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $1.16 | — | -$1.16 | 53% 1909-1671 (3580) |
Invested
$1,225.5
Value
$534.23
PnL
-$691.27
Record
49%
4676-4943 (9619)
Both legs:
Invested
$721.96
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$278.88
Record
52%
2494-2286 (4780)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$482.24
Value
—
PnL
-$482.24
Record
54%
6019-5096 (11115)
Invested
$320
Value
—
PnL
-$320
Record
65%
353-190 (543)
Invested
$139.22
Value
—
PnL
-$139.22
Record
38%
1348-2243 (3591)
poshposh<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
1336-1411 (2747)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
—
PnL
-$2.13
Record
83%
978-205 (1183)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
—
PnL
-$1.16
Record
53%
1909-1671 (3580)