Altamura Societa' Sportiva SRL vs. Cavese 1919: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 52¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$19.5K
$149.1
54¢ → 52¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Overavg 54¢ | $16.1K | $16.2K | +$148.75 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 45.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$19.13 | — |
SE sentrio | Overavg 54¢ | $996.73 | $1.0K | +$9.48 | — |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 48.2¢ | $903.35 | $881.15 | -$22.2 | — |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Overavg 56¢ | $223.99 | $218 | -$6 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 54.8¢ | $109.5 | $60.61 | -$0.06 | — |
Invested
$16,070.45
Value
$16.2K
PnL
+$148.75
Record
—
Invested
$1,096.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$19.13
Record
—
Invested
$996.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.48
Record
—
Invested
$903.35
Value
$881.15
PnL
-$22.2
Record
—
Invested
$223.99
Value
$218
PnL
-$6
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$109.5
Value
$60.61
PnL
-$0.06
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.