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No
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
RN1CTR<$100YesNoYes
VeryLucky888CTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will AS Giana Erminio win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$65.51
Combined PnL
$10.17
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares402
Combined PnL-$28.82
No2 traders
Total Value$6.14
Total Shares6
Combined PnL+$38.99
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $86.81 | $59.37 | -$27.44 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.8¢ | $45.57 | $59.37 | +$13.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $41.24 | — | -$41.24 | |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $5.43 | — | -$5.43 | 14% 90-555 (645) |
RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $23.53 | — | -$23.53 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $4.79 | $6.14 | +$1.35 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $0.01 | — | -$0.01 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.17 | — | +$0.15 | 54% 1417-1228 (2645) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 54¢ | $160.47 | — | +$37.64 | 39% 3675-5843 (9518) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$86.81
Value
$59.37
PnL
-$27.44
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Both legs:
No$45.5776.8¢+$13.8
Yes$41.2427.7¢-$41.24
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.43
Value
—
PnL
-$5.43
Record
14%
90-555 (645)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.53
Value
—
PnL
-$23.53
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
$6.14
PnL
+$1.35
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
1417-1228 (2645)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeInvested
$160.47
Value
—
PnL
+$37.64
Record
39%
3675-5843 (9518)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd6bb7f40...c88d86
Slug
serc-acc-gie-2026-11-14-gie