Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5
Resolved Over. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Under 48%
1 arb excluded
$30.5K
$2.7K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 25 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 92.6¢ | $31.8K | — | $-20.0K | 51% 17649-16650 (34299) |
KK Kkunn | Overavg 6.9¢ | $18.7K | $18.7K | +$17.4K | 43% 241-320 (561) |
 ER72SENCTR | Underavg 58.4¢ | $1,000 | — | -$1,000 | 68% 338-156 (494) |
GR graziek99CTR | Underavg 88.2¢ | $1,000 | — | -$1,000 | 87% 466-71 (537) |
 RN1 | Overavg 7.6¢ | $643.1 | $8.4K | +$7.8K | 54% 58173-50394 (108567) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 88.7¢ | $841.07 | — | -$686.42 | 47% 13102-14675 (27777) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 86.9¢ | $386.6 | — | -$386.6 | 53% 337-294 (631) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 81.9¢ | $327.23 | — | -$327.23 | 51% 317-303 (620) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 89.5¢ | $291.2 | — | -$291.2 | 53% 344-310 (654) |
SU suntoriARB<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $268.7 | $1.9K | +$1.6K | 45% 13007-15781 (28788) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 10¢ | $190.47 | $1.9K | +$1.7K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 93.6¢ | $78.23 | — | -$78.23 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 10.7¢ | $113.71 | $1.1K | +$948.72 | 49% 13483-14184 (27667) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 79.1¢ | $51.27 | — | -$51.27 | 47% 10069-11208 (21277) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $47.7 | — | -$47.7 | 58% 29915-21972 (51887) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Overavg 9¢ | $11.27 | $125.26 | +$113.99 | 46% 9230-10953 (20183) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $9.46 | — | -$9.46 | 46% 7951-9285 (17236) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 12.2¢ | $11.33 | $92.61 | +$81.28 | 52% 6399-5797 (12196) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 20.1¢ | $16.45 | $81.79 | +$65.34 | 50% 34723-34187 (68910) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $15.86 | $61 | +$45.14 | 48% 5105-5464 (10569) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 8.5¢ | $3 | $35.45 | +$32.45 | 48% 5504-5966 (11470) |
DI dips.<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $6.49 | $25.96 | +$19.47 | 46% 7328-8524 (15852) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $9.76 | $25.55 | +$29.17 | 52% 1995-1819 (3814) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 8.9¢ | $0.1 | $1.1 | +$1 | 50% 25018-24739 (49757) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 48550-34689 (83239) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 89.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 26441-26261 (52702) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 17377-12977 (30354) |
Invested
$31,794.08
Value
—
PnL
$-20.0K
Record
51%
17649-16650 (34299)
Invested
$18,666.38
Value
$18.7K
PnL
+$17.4K
Record
43%
241-320 (561)
ER72SENCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
-$1,000
Record
68%
338-156 (494)
Invested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
-$1,000
Record
87%
466-71 (537)
RN1Invested
$643.1
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$7.8K
Record
54%
58173-50394 (108567)
Invested
$841.07
Value
—
PnL
-$686.42
Record
47%
13102-14675 (27777)
Invested
$386.6
Value
—
PnL
-$386.6
Record
53%
337-294 (631)
Invested
$327.23
Value
—
PnL
-$327.23
Record
51%
317-303 (620)
Invested
$291.2
Value
—
PnL
-$291.2
Record
53%
344-310 (654)
Invested
$268.7
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
45%
13007-15781 (28788)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$948.72
Record
49%
13483-14184 (27667)
Invested
$51.27
Value
—
PnL
-$51.27
Record
47%
10069-11208 (21277)
Invested
$47.7
Value
—
PnL
-$47.7
Record
58%
29915-21972 (51887)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$125.26
PnL
+$113.99
Record
46%
9230-10953 (20183)
Invested
$9.46
Value
—
PnL
-$9.46
Record
46%
7951-9285 (17236)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.33
Value
$92.61
PnL
+$81.28
Record
52%
6399-5797 (12196)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$81.79
PnL
+$65.34
Record
50%
34723-34187 (68910)
Invested
$15.86
Value
$61
PnL
+$45.14
Record
48%
5105-5464 (10569)
Invested
$3
Value
$35.45
PnL
+$32.45
Record
48%
5504-5966 (11470)
Invested
$6.49
Value
$25.96
PnL
+$19.47
Record
46%
7328-8524 (15852)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$9.76
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$29.17
Record
52%
1995-1819 (3814)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
25018-24739 (49757)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
48550-34689 (83239)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26441-26261 (52702)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
17377-12977 (30354)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
CTRUnder — $0
Kkunn
Over — $18.7K
ER72SEN
CTRUnder — $0
graziek99
CTRUnder — $0
RN1
Over — $8.4K
38791873984189
CTRUnder — $0
LightParadox
CTRUnder — $0
Venusian
CTRUnder — $0
Limousin
CTRUnder — $0
suntori
ARBArbitrage — excluded