Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 50¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 7

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.7K

Combined PnL

$398

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 50¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$23.0K

Total Shares40,419

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Over9 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares36,648

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 59.7¢	$23.3K	$21.0K	$-2.3K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CH chongchong37	Overavg 42.1¢	$13.1K	$15.5K	+$2.4K	52% 148-139 (287)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 76.2¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	-$839.86	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.2¢	$3.7K	$2.5K	$-1.3K
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.5¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$444.98
DA dashattacker	Underavg 89¢	$3.7K	$2.1K	$-1.6K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 13.6¢	$723.65	$1.6K	+$859.74	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 14.9¢	$146.17	$489.42	+$343.25	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 21.3¢	$289.47	$459.37	+$169.9	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.3¢	$146.36	$343.77	+$197.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.9¢	$143.11	$115.6	-$27.52
VE Venusian	Overavg 11.3¢	$79.62	$353.75	+$274.13	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 22.7¢	$147.26	$325	+$177.74	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 16.1¢	$222.11	$304.21	+$160.56	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
dips.ARB<$100	Underavg 63.8¢	$79.77	$191	+$111.23	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
└ Over leg	Overavg 5.2¢	$14.67	$140	+$125.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.8¢	$65.1	$51	-$14.1
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$16.33	$43.55	+$27.22	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 21¢	$9.28	$22.11	+$12.82	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 5¢	$1.47	$14.74	+$13.26	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 76¢	$7.6	$5	-$2.6	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$23,255.32

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

chongchong37

Over

Invested

$13,059.98

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

148-139 (287)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,230.01

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$839.86

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Under$3,738.9976.2¢$-1.3K

Over$1,491.0238.5¢+$444.98

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$3,662.12

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$723.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$859.74

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$146.17

Value

$489.42

PnL

+$343.25

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$289.47

Value

$459.37

PnL

+$169.9

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Over$146.3621.3¢+$197.41

Under$143.1161.9¢-$27.52

Venusian

Over

Invested

$79.62

Value

$353.75

PnL

+$274.13

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$147.26

Value

$325

PnL

+$177.74

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$222.11

Value

$304.21

PnL

+$160.56

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

dips.ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$79.77

Value

$191

PnL

+$111.23

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Both legs:

Over$14.675.2¢+$125.34

Under$65.163.8¢-$14.1

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$16.33

Value

$43.55

PnL

+$27.22

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$9.28

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$12.82

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$1.47

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$13.26

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.