Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (90%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 11¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$693.92

Smart Money Entry

19¢ → 10.5¢

-45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$870.52

Total Shares8,307

Combined PnL-$709.23

Over2 traders

Total Value$60.48

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$15.3

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 20¢	$624.95	$296.81	-$328.14	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 74.2¢	$236.07	$251.36	+$37.97	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.2¢	$155.22	$187.27	+$32.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 11.7¢	$71.38	$64.09	+$5.92
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 14.6¢	$350.44	$229.61	-$120.83	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 24.2¢	$386.35	$199.58	-$186.77	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 17.2¢	$181.52	$100.22	-$81.3	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 76¢	$132.38	$55.96	+$15.23	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 20.3¢	$15.04	$19.61	+$4.57	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22.4¢	$11.6	$13.71	+$2.12	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 25.1¢	$9.84	$10.97	+$1.12	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.53	+$0.08	84% 15082-2932 (18014)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$624.95

Value

$296.81

PnL

-$328.14

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$236.07

Value

$251.36

PnL

+$37.97

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$155.2274.2¢+$32.05

Under$71.3811.7¢+$5.92

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$350.44

Value

$229.61

PnL

-$120.83

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$386.35

Value

$199.58

PnL

-$186.77

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$181.52

Value

$100.22

PnL

-$81.3

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$132.38

Value

$55.96

PnL

+$15.23

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.04

Value

$19.61

PnL

+$4.57

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.6

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$2.12

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.84

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.