Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 30¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 30¢

-61% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,964

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,049

Combined PnL+$624.29

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 76.9¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	$-1.5K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 77¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$667.99	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 77¢	$1.9K	$774	$-1.1K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 77¢	$1.8K	$501.28	$-1.3K
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.3¢	$84.51	$272.72	+$188.21
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 77¢	$712.23	$698.36	-$13.87	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 75¢	$589.68	$609.34	+$19.66	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 25¢	$220.4	$504.07	+$283.67	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI Limousin	Overavg 25¢	$182.57	$380.66	+$198.09	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE Venusian	Overavg 24¢	$267.36	$295.72	+$28.36	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 24¢	$86.45	$215.26	+$128.81	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 75¢	$389.79	$205.29	-$184.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
RN1<$100	Overavg 65¢	$90.8	$85.21	-$5.59	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LonnieHawkinss	Overavg 64.7¢	$104.89	$76.48	-$9.06	53% 2185-1944 (4129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 75.7¢	$25.61	$26.24	+$0.62	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$33.62	$11.48	-$22.15	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 60.1¢	$15.82	$10.27	-$5.55	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.3	$2.03	+$0.73	75% 1985-674 (2659)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$3,261.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,905

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$667.99

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,879.51

Value

$774

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$1,79577¢$-1.3K

Over$84.5124.3¢+$188.21

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$712.23

Value

$698.36

PnL

-$13.87

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$589.68

Value

$609.34

PnL

+$19.66

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$220.4

Value

$504.07

PnL

+$283.67

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$182.57

Value

$380.66

PnL

+$198.09

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$267.36

Value

$295.72

PnL

+$28.36

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$86.45

Value

$215.26

PnL

+$128.81

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$389.79

Value

$205.29

PnL

-$184.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$90.8

Value

$85.21

PnL

-$5.59

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LonnieHawkinss

Over

Invested

$104.89

Value

$76.48

PnL

-$9.06

Record

53%

2185-1944 (4129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.61

Value

$26.24

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.62

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$22.15

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.82

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$5.55

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.73

Record

75%

1985-674 (2659)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.