Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$27.4K

Combined PnL

-$192.36

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 99.1¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares27,338

Combined PnL+$201.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$206.13

Total Shares13,026

Combined PnL-$393.95

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 93.5¢	$7.5K	$7.9K	+$427.31	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.4¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$76.25	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95.1¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$87.32	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
RN1	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$271.91	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 94¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	+$24.28	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VE Venusian	Noavg 98.3¢	$793.28	$772.25	-$21.03	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.7¢	$682.65	$686.11	+$3.45	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 93.4¢	$1.1K	$678.15	+$27.61	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
AH aHjCz	Noavg 99.1¢	$195.95	$195.63	-$0.32	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
AL AlegrandebigCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$436.36	$117.76	-$318.6	94% 2542-150 (2692)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 92.4¢	$103.87	$107.92	+$4.05	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$120.11	$55.71	-$64.41	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$51.63	$52.08	+$0.45	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$32.43	$30.56	-$1.87	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$18.47	$15.1	-$3.37	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$11.18	$2.11	-$9.07	49% 15008-15929 (30937)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$7,465.54

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$427.31

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,022.91

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$76.25

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Limousin

Invested

$4,576.61

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$87.32

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

RN1

Invested

$4,198.25

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$271.91

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Invested

$2,444.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24.28

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Venusian

Invested

$793.28

Value

$772.25

PnL

-$21.03

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTime

Invested

$682.65

Value

$686.11

PnL

+$3.45

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Pan9X

Invested

$1,132.32

Value

$678.15

PnL

+$27.61

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

aHjCz

Invested

$195.95

Value

$195.63

PnL

-$0.32

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

AlegrandebigCTR

Yes

Invested

$436.36

Value

$117.76

PnL

-$318.6

Record

94%

2542-150 (2692)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$103.87

Value

$107.92

PnL

+$4.05

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.11

Value

$55.71

PnL

-$64.41

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$51.63

Value

$52.08

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.43

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$1.87

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$18.47

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$3.37

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.18

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$9.07

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.