Celtic FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: Both Teams to Score
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$1.4K
$54.68
56.3¢ → 68.3¢
+21% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60.6¢ | $899.28 | $962.39 | +$63.1 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 47¢ | $159.99 | $85.59 | +$10.4 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $255.48 | $67.5 | -$12 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
WA WagerWizardCTR | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $141.02 | $66.28 | -$7.38 | 71% 18400-7571 (25971) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $72.95 | $60.46 | -$2.28 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $54.24 | $53.76 | -$0.48 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $42.24 | $47.96 | +$5.72 | 48% 39763-42635 (82398) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $46.01 | $40.36 | -$5.65 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $27.69 | $14.81 | +$2.2 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $20 | $10.7 | +$0.9 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $2.73 | +$0.13 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.13 | $1.14 | +$0.01 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
Invested
$899.28
Value
$962.39
PnL
+$63.1
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$159.99
Value
$85.59
PnL
+$10.4
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$255.48
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$12
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$141.02
Value
$66.28
PnL
-$7.38
Record
71%
18400-7571 (25971)
Invested
$72.95
Value
$60.46
PnL
-$2.28
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$54.24
Value
$53.76
PnL
-$0.48
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$42.24
Value
$47.96
PnL
+$5.72
Record
48%
39763-42635 (82398)
Invested
$46.01
Value
$40.36
PnL
-$5.65
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$14.81
PnL
+$2.2
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$20
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.