Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$2.83

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,036

Combined PnL+$4.34

No3 traders

Total Value$28.95

Total Shares2,145

Combined PnL-$1.52

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
kinderSman	Yesavg 98.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0	— 0-1 (1)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 97.8¢	$647.9	$651.89	+$3.99	— 0-5 (5)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$39.99	$40.34	+$0.35	40% 2992-4404 (7396)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 1.4¢	$30.04	$28.58	-$1.46	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$0.35	$0.32	-$0.02	52% 210-197 (407)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$0.09	$0.05	-$0.03	— 2-2 (4)

kinderSman

Yes

Invested

$1,311.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

0-1 (1)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$647.9

Value

$651.89

PnL

+$3.99

Record

—

0-5 (5)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.99

Value

$40.34

PnL

+$0.35

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$30.04

Value

$28.58

PnL

-$1.46

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

210-197 (407)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

2-2 (4)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.