Consensus PnL $158K · win rate 99% (384–5, n=389) · PM monthly #762 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$157.5K
Record
384W / 5L
Win Rate
99.0%
of 389 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#105
Source
PM monthly #762
Record (90 d)
154/155 · 99%
Trades
0
Markets
543
Volume
$6.1M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 15 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (69% of 80)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $2.0K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (31% of 36)
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (56% of 32)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $1.9K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 24)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $1.8K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- New pandemic in 2026?No $981 · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?No $980 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $945 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 197)
Specialties
396 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 98¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 100% of 81 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 100% of 69 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +8%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 97% of 29 at an average 98¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 100% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 100% of 392)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.