FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$1.5K
-$145.08
72.3¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 7¢ | $56.32 | $543.09 | +$486.77 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 61¢ | $435.71 | $411.7 | -$24.01 | — |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 93¢ | $748.25 | $261.49 | -$486.77 | — |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 46.3¢ | $290.37 | $203.88 | -$86.49 | — |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 69.3¢ | $96.15 | $56.08 | -$40.08 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $8 | $13.5 | +$5.5 | — |
Invested
$56.32
Value
$543.09
PnL
+$486.77
Record
—
Invested
$435.71
Value
$411.7
PnL
-$24.01
Record
—
Invested
$748.25
Value
$261.49
PnL
-$486.77
Record
—
Invested
$290.37
Value
$203.88
PnL
-$86.49
Record
—
RN1<$100Invested
$96.15
Value
$56.08
PnL
-$40.08
Record
—
Invested
$8
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$5.5
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.