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4 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (21%) · No at 84¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 21%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 19 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,948

Combined PnL+$33.43

Yes15 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares16,968

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 84.2¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	+$40.1	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$35.09	$936.34	+$901.25	48% 1386-1529 (2915)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$16.1	$800.19	+$741.93	30% 35278-83615 (118893)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$1.9K	$330.62	+$346.27	55% 42136-34048 (76184)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yes	$297.68	$297.68	+$276.04	62% 35877-22304 (58181)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$31.73	$265.91	+$234.17	53% 3355-3002 (6357)
GI GingerMcKennaARB<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$123.86	$230.65	+$139.78	34% 3942-7559 (11501)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.9¢	$118.3	$122.56	+$4.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.56	$108.09	+$135.52
CI cigarettes	Noavg 85.2¢	$214.79	$221.26	+$6.47	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80¢	$213.95	$214.64	+$0.7	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$863.52	$147.66	+$157.68	32% 2581-5602 (8183)
CosmicCedar	Noavg 89.4¢	$177.8	$147.4	-$13.84	50% 1481-1484 (2965)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.47	$50.62	+$50.14	49% 22831-23659 (46490)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$51.14	$49.8	-$1.34	45% 784-948 (1732)
CU curieCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3.73	$47.63	+$43.9	56% 23221-18163 (41384)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.61	$43.05	+$41.44	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yes	$26.79	$26.79	+$24.84	38% 7287-12104 (19391)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.68	$14.06	-$130.21	24% 52-162 (214)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$7.08	$7.08	+$6.75	21% 569-2202 (2771)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.7	$5.99	+$5.29	34% 6253-12400 (18653)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$1.88	+$1.78	22% 3337-11823 (15160)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,714.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$40.1

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$35.09

Value

$936.34

PnL

+$901.25

Record

48%

1386-1529 (2915)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$16.1

Value

$800.19

PnL

+$741.93

Record

30%

35278-83615 (118893)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,933.44

Value

$330.62

PnL

+$346.27

Record

55%

42136-34048 (76184)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$297.68

Value

$297.68

PnL

+$276.04

Record

62%

35877-22304 (58181)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$31.73

Value

$265.91

PnL

+$234.17

Record

53%

3355-3002 (6357)

GingerMcKennaARB<$100

Invested

$123.86

Value

$230.65

PnL

+$139.78

Record

34%

3942-7559 (11501)

Both legs:

No$118.383.9¢+$4.26

Yes$5.560.7¢+$135.52

cigarettes

Invested

$214.79

Value

$221.26

PnL

+$6.47

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$213.95

Value

$214.64

PnL

+$0.7

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$863.52

Value

$147.66

PnL

+$157.68

Record

32%

2581-5602 (8183)

CosmicCedar

Invested

$177.8

Value

$147.4

PnL

-$13.84

Record

50%

1481-1484 (2965)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$50.62

PnL

+$50.14

Record

49%

22831-23659 (46490)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.14

Value

$49.8

PnL

-$1.34

Record

45%

784-948 (1732)

curieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$47.63

PnL

+$43.9

Record

56%

23221-18163 (41384)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$43.05

PnL

+$41.44

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.79

Value

$26.79

PnL

+$24.84

Record

38%

7287-12104 (19391)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$130.21

Record

24%

52-162 (214)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.08

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$6.75

Record

21%

569-2202 (2771)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$5.29

Record

34%

6253-12400 (18653)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$1.78

Record

22%

3337-11823 (15160)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 19 top traders (21%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 82% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.9%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.