Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Tondela vs. SC Farense: O/U 1.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $691 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$691.19

Combined PnL

-$531.04

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$610.83

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$202.39

Under10 traders

Total Value$80.36

Total Shares1,955

Combined PnL-$733.43

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 57.2¢	$306.86	$496.92	+$190.06	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 93.1¢	$73.56	$78.61	+$5.05	51% 238-233 (471)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$71.03	$40.58	-$30.45	41% 126-183 (309)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.4¢	$503.71	$25.58	-$455.93	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 64.5¢	$13.43	$20.72	+$7.29	82% 279-60 (339)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 93¢	$14.59	$14.59	+$0	42% 555-755 (1310)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$15.65	$9.8	-$5.85	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 39.5¢	$163.02	$2.06	-$160.95	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.64	$1.11	-$5.54	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$38.56	$0.44	-$38.12	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$30.79	$0.35	-$30.44	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.35	-$0.6	35% 628-1146 (1774)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 31.2¢	$3.69	$0.06	-$3.63	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$0.03	-$1.93	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$306.86

Value

$496.92

PnL

+$190.06

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$73.56

Value

$78.61

PnL

+$5.05

Record

51%

238-233 (471)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.03

Value

$40.58

PnL

-$30.45

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$503.71

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$455.93

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$13.43

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$7.29

Record

82%

279-60 (339)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$14.59

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

555-755 (1310)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.65

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$5.85

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$163.02

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$160.95

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.64

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$5.54

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.56

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$38.12

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.79

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$30.44

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.6

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.69

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.63

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.93

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.