Will CD Tondela win on 2026-11-15?
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 42%
$1.2K
-$254.32
76.6¢ → 99¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 80.4¢ | $1.0K | $787.27 | -$258.31 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $178.2 | $261.39 | +$83.19 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Yesavg 76.4¢ | $64.06 | $82.98 | +$18.92 | 51% 238-233 (471) |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $6 | $6 | -$0 | 50% 1112-1113 (2225) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $13.05 | $4.85 | +$2.95 | 48% 2518-2728 (5246) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $2.19 | $2.91 | +$0.72 | 34% 460-894 (1354) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.9¢ | $7.58 | $1.93 | -$5.65 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.6¢ | $61.66 | $1.84 | -$59.82 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.3¢ | $12.67 | $1.63 | -$11.04 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $22.6 | $0.84 | -$21.76 | 38% 1338-2179 (3517) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $2.05 | $0.68 | -$1.37 | 39% 1554-2430 (3984) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $2.24 | $0.08 | -$2.16 | 38% 1339-2199 (3538) |
Invested
$1,045.57
Value
$787.27
PnL
-$258.31
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$178.2
Value
$261.39
PnL
+$83.19
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$64.06
Value
$82.98
PnL
+$18.92
Record
51%
238-233 (471)
Invested
$6
Value
$6
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1112-1113 (2225)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$2.95
Record
48%
2518-2728 (5246)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$0.72
Record
34%
460-894 (1354)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$5.65
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
Invested
$61.66
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$59.82
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$11.04
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
Invested
$22.6
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$21.76
Record
38%
1338-2179 (3517)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$1.37
Record
39%
1554-2430 (3984)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.16
Record
38%
1339-2199 (3538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.