Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Penafiel win on 2026-11-15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 33¢ · $729 held · ended Nov 15

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$729.46

Combined PnL

-$105.26

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 32.5¢

-36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$198.23

Total Shares612

Combined PnL-$114.52

Yes3 traders

Total Value$75

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$9.26

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$416.29	$367.39	-$34.9	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.5¢	$276.6	$201.96	-$74.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.7¢	$129.16	$165.43	+$39.73
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$91.42	$88.84	-$2.57	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
└ No leg	Noavg 38.3¢	$70.8	$64.66	-$6.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.4¢	$20.61	$24.18	+$3.57
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$95.98	$68.15	-$27.83	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$58.91	$66.82	+$7.91	78% 828-231 (1059)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$76.83	$45.4	-$31.43	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 53.6¢	$60.56	$36.17	-$24.39	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$28.46	$18.63	-$9.83	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$34.71	$18.54	-$16.17	56% 656-516 (1172)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$8	$5.28	-$2.72	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$3.78	$4.55	+$0.77	38% 496-823 (1319)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$6.46	$4.31	-$2.15	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$3.05	$3.63	+$0.58	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.75	+$0	51% 242-233 (475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$416.29

Value

$367.39

PnL

-$34.9

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

No$276.644.5¢-$74.63

Yes$129.1652.7¢+$39.73

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$91.42

Value

$88.84

PnL

-$2.57

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Both legs:

No$70.838.3¢-$6.14

Yes$20.6155.4¢+$3.57

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$95.98

Value

$68.15

PnL

-$27.83

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.91

Value

$66.82

PnL

+$7.91

Record

78%

828-231 (1059)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$76.83

Value

$45.4

PnL

-$31.43

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$60.56

Value

$36.17

PnL

-$24.39

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$28.46

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$9.83

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$34.71

Value

$18.54

PnL

-$16.17

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$2.72

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

SlickRick123<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.77

Record

38%

496-823 (1319)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$2.15

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

242-233 (475)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.