Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Lusitania FC Lourosa win on 2026-11-15?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
No 65%
$1.1K
-$462.23
Smart Money Signal
12 of 18 top traders (67%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 76.7¢ | $389.59 | — | -$389.59 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $154.98 | $567.73 | +$412.75 | 52% 2510-2301 (4811) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 81.9¢ | $594.01 | $444.54 | -$149.47 | 39% 1595-2514 (4109) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $56.59 | $56.65 | +$0.06 | 38% 3843-6310 (10153) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $14.24 | $40 | +$25.76 | 38% 500-824 (1324) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $7.25 | $30.72 | +$34.27 | 48% 2576-2780 (5356) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 93¢ | $8.4 | $9.03 | +$0.63 | 48% 1314-1407 (2721) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.1¢ | $23.45 | — | -$23.45 | 38% 1375-2208 (3583) |
 poshposhCTR | Noavg 91¢ | $284.83 | — | -$284.83 | 49% 1349-1428 (2777) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $46.8 | — | -$46.8 | 45% 373-460 (833) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 9.9¢ | $24.01 | — | -$24.01 | 38% 1374-2228 (3602) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $5.77 | — | -$5.77 | 47% 1204-1385 (2589) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $3.32 | — | -$3.32 | 38% 1353-2203 (3556) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 46% 486-574 (1060) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $17.39 | — | -$0.29 | 46% 888-1048 (1936) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $2.46 | — | -$2.46 | 53% 7546-6651 (14197) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $258 | — | +$0 | 64% 145-83 (228) |
Invested
$389.59
Value
—
PnL
-$389.59
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$154.98
Value
$567.73
PnL
+$412.75
Record
52%
2510-2301 (4811)
Invested
$594.01
Value
$444.54
PnL
-$149.47
Record
39%
1595-2514 (4109)
Invested
$56.59
Value
$56.65
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
3843-6310 (10153)
Invested
$14.24
Value
$40
PnL
+$25.76
Record
38%
500-824 (1324)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$30.72
PnL
+$34.27
Record
48%
2576-2780 (5356)
dips.<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$0.63
Record
48%
1314-1407 (2721)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
Invested
$23.45
Value
—
PnL
-$23.45
Record
38%
1375-2208 (3583)
poshposhCTRInvested
$284.83
Value
—
PnL
-$284.83
Record
49%
1349-1428 (2777)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$46.8
Value
—
PnL
-$46.8
Record
45%
373-460 (833)
Invested
$24.01
Value
—
PnL
-$24.01
Record
38%
1374-2228 (3602)
Invested
$5.77
Value
—
PnL
-$5.77
Record
47%
1204-1385 (2589)
Invested
$3.32
Value
—
PnL
-$3.32
Record
38%
1353-2203 (3556)
Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
46%
486-574 (1060)
Invested
$17.39
Value
—
PnL
-$0.29
Record
46%
888-1048 (1936)
Invested
$2.46
Value
—
PnL
-$2.46
Record
53%
7546-6651 (14197)
Invested
$258
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
145-83 (228)