Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Amarante FC vs. FC Felgueiras 1932: O/U 1.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $591 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$591.33

Combined PnL

-$240.96

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$468.33

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL-$275.05

Over2 traders

Total Value$123

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$34.09

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 53¢	$529.02	$439.05	-$89.97	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 95.7¢	$68.28	$68.48	+$0.2	51% 238-233 (471)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 34¢	$20.64	$54.53	+$33.89	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 38.8¢	$91.64	$14.08	-$77.57	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$85.17	$10.65	-$74.53	35% 628-1146 (1774)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$82.81	$1.93	-$12.88	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 29.4¢	$9.52	$1.3	-$8.22	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$8.96	$0.84	-$8.12	41% 126-183 (309)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$4.25	$0.49	-$3.77	47% 1186-1358 (2544)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$529.02

Value

$439.05

PnL

-$89.97

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$68.28

Value

$68.48

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

238-233 (471)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$20.64

Value

$54.53

PnL

+$33.89

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.64

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$77.57

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.17

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$74.53

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.81

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$12.88

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$8.22

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.96

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$8.12

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.25

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$3.77

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.