Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vitória SC win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$150.72

Smart Money Entry

13.7¢ → 5.5¢

-60% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$837.21

Total Shares7,349

Combined PnL-$161.82

No4 traders

Total Value$589.08

Total Shares607

Combined PnL+$11.09

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$421.62	$336.21	-$85.4	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 86.5¢	$310.61	$301.14	+$3.54	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$176.33	$170.24	-$6.09	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 94.4¢	$150.99	$151.19	+$0.2	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 86.2¢	$170.69	$123.25	+$6.14	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$116.19	$120.66	+$4.47	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$88.45	$88.47	+$0.01	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$58.84	$60.93	+$2.09	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$66.98	$30.83	-$36.14	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$68.73	$27.85	-$40.88	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 86¢	$12.29	$13.5	+$1.21	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.97	$1.35	+$0.11	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.65	$0.67	+$0.02	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$421.62

Value

$336.21

PnL

-$85.4

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

38791873984189

Invested

$310.61

Value

$301.14

PnL

+$3.54

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.33

Value

$170.24

PnL

-$6.09

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

WagerWizard

Invested

$150.99

Value

$151.19

PnL

+$0.2

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

Pan9X

Invested

$170.69

Value

$123.25

PnL

+$6.14

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.19

Value

$120.66

PnL

+$4.47

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.45

Value

$88.47

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.84

Value

$60.93

PnL

+$2.09

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.98

Value

$30.83

PnL

-$36.14

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.73

Value

$27.85

PnL

-$40.88

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$12.29

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.11

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.