Will Vitória SC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 96¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
1 arb excluded
$13.8K
$3.1K
61.2¢ → 96¢
+57% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 45.6¢ | $2.8K | $5.2K | +$2.4K | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | Noavg 41.5¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$923.11 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 92.2¢ | $3.2K | $1.8K | $-1.4K | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 53.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$1.0K | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 93¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$51.42 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 92.9¢ | $1.1K | $983.59 | -$106.33 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $1.4K | $373.97 | -$993 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90.9¢ | $269.79 | $283.53 | +$13.74 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $1.1K | $90.44 | $-1.0K | |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 58.9¢ | $352.37 | $237.69 | +$207.11 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 78¢ | $156 | $166 | +$10 | 56% 8753-6943 (15696) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $38.24 | $80.79 | +$42.55 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $27.93 | $29.69 | +$1.76 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $10.8 | $28.5 | +$17.7 | 71% 18402-7575 (25977) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $4 | $0.36 | -$3.64 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
Invested
$2,801.83
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$1,086.53
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$923.11
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$3,160.23
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$1,341.1
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$1,436.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$51.42
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$1,089.92
Value
$983.59
PnL
-$106.33
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$1,366.97
Value
$373.97
PnL
-$993
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Both legs:
Invested
$352.37
Value
$237.69
PnL
+$207.11
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
0xheavy888Invested
$156
Value
$166
PnL
+$10
Record
56%
8753-6943 (15696)
Invested
$38.24
Value
$80.79
PnL
+$42.55
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$27.93
Value
$29.69
PnL
+$1.76
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$17.7
Record
71%
18402-7575 (25977)
Invested
$4
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$3.64
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.