CD Santa Clara vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$2.6K
$364.86
51.7¢ → 100¢
+93% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.7K | $1.1K | +$174.64 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 54.3¢ | $411.84 | $729.84 | +$340.42 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 RN1 | Overavg 49¢ | $1.7K | $668.48 | -$155.4 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Overavg 94.4¢ | $66 | $69.86 | +$3.86 | 71% 18400-7571 (25971) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $300 | $40.83 | -$0.67 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $8.63 | $8.74 | +$0.11 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $17.58 | $6.86 | +$1.93 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 61.5¢ | $6.13 | $6.1 | -$0.03 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
Invested
$1,746.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$174.64
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
Invested
$411.84
Value
$729.84
PnL
+$340.42
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
RN1Invested
$1,663.9
Value
$668.48
PnL
-$155.4
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$66
Value
$69.86
PnL
+$3.86
Record
71%
18400-7571 (25971)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$300
Value
$40.83
PnL
-$0.67
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$0.11
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$17.58
Value
$6.86
PnL
+$1.93
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$6.13
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.