Korona Kielce vs. RKS Radomiak Radom: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$165.32

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,549

Combined PnL+$485.46

Over4 traders

Total Value$271.88

Total Shares3,066

Combined PnL-$650.78

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 80.4¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$485.3	73% 3103-1171 (4274)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 24.2¢	$803.56	$205.48	-$598.08	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$35.09	$60.48	+$25.39	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$5.9	$6.06	+$0.16	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 19.8¢	$2.31	$5.84	+$3.53	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$81.7	$0.08	-$81.63	53% 62307-54551 (116858)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,039.21

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$485.3

Record

73%

3103-1171 (4274)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$803.56

Value

$205.48

PnL

-$598.08

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.09

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$25.39

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$3.53

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81.7

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$81.63

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.