Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Sport Boys Association: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 51¢ · $510 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$510.26
-$4.45
51.1¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 51.2¢ | $429.18 | $422.87 | -$6.32 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 51.2¢ | $28.55 | $28.1 | -$0.45 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $177.23 | $26.81 | +$3.34 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Underavg 51.3¢ | $27.47 | $26.53 | -$0.94 | 58% 6502-4666 (11168) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.2¢ | $2.26 | $2.5 | +$0.24 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.45 | -$0.33 | 52% 8584-7828 (16412) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $1.01 | $1.01 | +$0 | 50% 27770-27632 (55402) |
Invested
$429.18
Value
$422.87
PnL
-$6.32
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.55
Value
$28.1
PnL
-$0.45
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
VeryLucky888Invested
$177.23
Value
$26.81
PnL
+$3.34
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$27.47
Value
$26.53
PnL
-$0.94
Record
58%
6502-4666 (11168)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.24
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
8584-7828 (16412)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
27770-27632 (55402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.