CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Sport Boys Association: Draw at halftime?

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (28%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$4.03

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$516.96

Total Shares1,542

Combined PnL-$4.36

No5 traders

Total Value$385.67

Total Shares580

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes — 72%No — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$205.44	$204.38	-$1.06	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 66.5¢	$171.17	$171.24	+$0.08	52% 923-846 (1769)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$134.14	$137.97	+$3.84	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.2¢	$99.41	$102.91	+$3.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.2¢	$34.73	$35.06	+$0.33
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 66.1¢	$105.89	$106.54	+$0.65	47% 898-1015 (1913)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$157.27	$72.59	-$1.6	51% 1659-1609 (3268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$46.19	$45.77	-$0.42	50% 932-930 (1862)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$43.39	$43.61	+$0.22	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$43.22	$43.1	-$0.11	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$42.33	$42.44	+$0.11	57% 851-641 (1492)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$60.93	$37.97	-$0.11	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.7¢	$22.6	$22.47	-$0.14	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$42.02	$19.98	+$0.11	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$19.77	$19.68	-$0.09	49% 868-890 (1758)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$17	$16.27	-$0.73	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$18	$16.11	-$1.89	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$13.55	$13.84	+$0.29	42% 548-748 (1296)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$13.14	$13.42	+$0.28	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.8	$6.7	-$0.1	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.03	$6.52	+$0.49	35% 635-1160 (1795)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.44

Value

$204.38

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$171.17

Value

$171.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$134.14

Value

$137.97

PnL

+$3.84

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Both legs:

No$99.4164.2¢+$3.51

Yes$34.7333.2¢+$0.33

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$105.89

Value

$106.54

PnL

+$0.65

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.27

Value

$72.59

PnL

-$1.6

Record

51%

1659-1609 (3268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$46.19

Value

$45.77

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.39

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.22

Value

$43.1

PnL

-$0.11

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$42.33

Value

$42.44

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.93

Value

$37.97

PnL

-$0.11

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.6

Value

$22.47

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.02

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.11

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.77

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$16.27

PnL

-$0.73

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$16.11

PnL

-$1.89

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.55

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.29

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.14

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$0.49

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.