Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Viking FK win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 13¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$179.99

Smart Money Entry

20.4¢ → 12.5¢

-39% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$45.13

No7 traders

Total Value$981.51

Total Shares5,879

Combined PnL-$225.12

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 83.2¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$155.31	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.2¢	$915.25	$962.21	+$46.97
└ No leg	Noavg 17.7¢	$686.95	$484.67	-$202.28
RN1	Yesavg 79.7¢	$831.79	$896.27	+$64.48	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 21.2¢	$276.43	$267.43	-$9	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 21.2¢	$268.72	$259.66	-$9.06	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 19.2¢	$393.63	$256.45	-$137.18	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 90¢	$208.12	$189.14	-$18.98	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$103.56	$98.25	-$5.31	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 20¢	$157.54	$94.12	-$63.42	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 21.6¢	$108.87	$71.76	-$37.1	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ No leg	Noavg 21.6¢	$84.87	$45.21	-$39.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$24	$26.55	+$2.55
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$91.69	$69.78	-$21.92	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.9¢	$44.96	$43.77	-$1.19
└ No leg	Noavg 20.7¢	$46.73	$26	-$20.73
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 89.7¢	$14.94	$14.58	-$0.37	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 22.6¢	$3.39	$3.23	-$0.16	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$10.06	$2.38	-$0.98	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,602.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$155.31

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$915.2583.2¢+$46.97

No$686.9517.7¢-$202.28

RN1

Yes

Invested

$831.79

Value

$896.27

PnL

+$64.48

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$276.43

Value

$267.43

PnL

-$9

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$268.72

Value

$259.66

PnL

-$9.06

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$393.63

Value

$256.45

PnL

-$137.18

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$208.12

Value

$189.14

PnL

-$18.98

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$103.56

Value

$98.25

PnL

-$5.31

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$157.54

Value

$94.12

PnL

-$63.42

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$108.87

Value

$71.76

PnL

-$37.1

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

No$84.8721.6¢-$39.65

Yes$2480¢+$2.55

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$91.69

Value

$69.78

PnL

-$21.92

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Invested

$14.94

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$0.37

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.