Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (23%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$59.36

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 99.4¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,296

Combined PnL+$60.12

Yes10 traders

Total Value$157.37

Total Shares5,273

Combined PnL-$119.48

No — 23%Yes — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$56.91	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$3.0K	$113.21	-$145.89	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.7¢	$230.63	$83.43	-$147.49
└ No leg	Noavg 92¢	$28.19	$29.78	+$1.59
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$1.8K	$50.56	-$75.84	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 90¢	$53.43	$46.15	+$3.15	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$35.31	$42.98	+$7.68	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$576.44	$25.58	-$30.32	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8.17	$17.59	+$9.42	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$441.84	$12.37	-$19.04	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$195.48	$5.47	-$7.68	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.47	$5.32	+$0.07	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$61.26	$1.72	-$3.19	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.05	$0.89	-$0.16	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$5	$0.14	-$0.26	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.15	$0.06	-$0.09	59% 52299-37045 (89344)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,261.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.91

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,010.36

Value

$113.21

PnL

-$145.89

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

Yes$230.637.7¢-$147.49

No$28.1992¢+$1.59

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,805.83

Value

$50.56

PnL

-$75.84

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$53.43

Value

$46.15

PnL

+$3.15

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$35.31

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$7.68

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$576.44

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$30.32

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$9.42

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$441.84

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$19.04

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.48

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$7.68

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.07

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.26

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$3.19

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.09

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.