Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 44¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 8

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$730.6

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 43.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares26,170

Combined PnL+$543.91

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,727

Combined PnL+$186.69

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
p1252CTR	Noavg 44.6¢	$10.8K	$11.3K	+$449.36	55% 113-93 (206)
dips.	Yesavg 55¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	+$91.7	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 70.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$53.45
└ No leg	Noavg 30.7¢	$718.55	$773	+$54.44
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yesavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$68.56	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
SL SlickRick123	Yesavg 55.6¢	$572.58	$601.41	+$28.82	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$423.45	$460.55	+$37.09	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.9¢	$168.6	$285.57	+$116.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$254.85	$174.97	-$79.88
SE sentrio	Yesavg 69.8¢	$270.53	$264	-$6.53	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 26¢	$151.71	$259.65	+$107.95	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
LR lryyy	Yesavg 54.7¢	$144.32	$143.88	-$0.44	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 32¢	$158.62	$138.8	-$19.83	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 31.7¢	$173.08	$132	+$4.58	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 33¢	$113.51	$108.35	-$5.16	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$24	$28	+$4	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$12.18	$18.69	+$6.51	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$16	$16.5	+$0.5	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$12.2	$16.3	+$4.1	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 69.1¢	$17.96	$14.43	-$3.53	53% 2714-2387 (5101)

p1252CTR

Invested

$10,829.1

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$449.36

Record

55%

113-93 (206)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$2,711.06

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$91.7

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,882.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$1,163.7770.2¢-$53.45

No$718.5530.7¢+$54.44

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yes

Invested

$1,699.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$68.56

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

SlickRick123

Yes

Invested

$572.58

Value

$601.41

PnL

+$28.82

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$423.45

Value

$460.55

PnL

+$37.09

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

No$168.631.9¢+$116.97

Yes$254.8567¢-$79.88

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$270.53

Value

$264

PnL

-$6.53

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$151.71

Value

$259.65

PnL

+$107.95

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

lryyy

Yes

Invested

$144.32

Value

$143.88

PnL

-$0.44

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$158.62

Value

$138.8

PnL

-$19.83

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$173.08

Value

$132

PnL

+$4.58

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$113.51

Value

$108.35

PnL

-$5.16

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$28

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$6.51

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.2

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$4.1

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.96

Value

$14.43

PnL

-$3.53

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.