Will Molde FK win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 84¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 8

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.2K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 84¢

+60% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares24,592

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares14,390

Combined PnL$-3.3K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Noavg 49.9¢	$11.3K	$16.8K	+$5.5K	50% 18-18 (36)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 100¢	$5.1K	$2.8K	$-2.4K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ No leg	Noavg 100¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	$-1.1K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.6¢	$2.0K	$664.68	$-1.3K
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$762.75	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.8¢	$814.44	$1.3K	+$503.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$2.1K	$851.25	$-1.3K
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$7.4K	$1.9K	$-1.7K	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 51¢	$4.7K	$1.2K	$-1.2K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.33	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 47.9¢	$661.41	$519.15	-$142.26	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.9¢	$307.01	$391.94	+$84.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.9¢	$354.41	$127.21	-$227.19
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 50.9¢	$1.6K	$411.56	-$390.96	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VE Venusian	Noavg 91.8¢	$418.46	$380.44	-$38.02	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$296.16	$337.14	+$40.98	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.6¢	$216.98	$226.89	+$9.91
└ No leg	Noavg 60.1¢	$79.18	$110.25	+$31.07
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 61.5¢	$380.05	$241.87	-$138.18	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.5¢	$285.98	$130.17	-$155.81
└ No leg	Noavg 60.6¢	$94.08	$111.7	+$17.62
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 52¢	$127.08	$94.04	+$27.96	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$8.74	$71.38	+$62.64	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$186.8	$45.77	-$56.97	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.8¢	$51.75	$31.15	-$20.6	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.2	$16.74	+$5.54	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$21.85	$5.68	-$4.37	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$21.56	$5.61	-$5.39	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 78¢	$5	$3.78	-$0.13	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$1.75	$1.76	+$0.01	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5	$1.3	+$0.75	62% 2044-1228 (3272)

hovistomaradona

Invested

$11,349.36

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$5,116.55

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

No$2,530.24100¢$-1.1K

Yes$1,959.8250.6¢$-1.3K

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,931.75

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$762.75

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$814.4451.8¢+$503.31

Yes$2,117.3140.2¢$-1.3K

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,378.02

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,701.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,090.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.33

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$661.41

Value

$519.15

PnL

-$142.26

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Both legs:

No$307.0164.9¢+$84.93

Yes$354.4147.9¢-$227.19

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,572.18

Value

$411.56

PnL

-$390.96

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Venusian

Invested

$418.46

Value

$380.44

PnL

-$38.02

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$296.16

Value

$337.14

PnL

+$40.98

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Both legs:

Yes$216.9815.6¢+$9.91

No$79.1860.1¢+$31.07

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$380.05

Value

$241.87

PnL

-$138.18

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Both legs:

Yes$285.9861.5¢-$155.81

No$94.0860.6¢+$17.62

SnakeBall

Invested

$127.08

Value

$94.04

PnL

+$27.96

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.74

Value

$71.38

PnL

+$62.64

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.8

Value

$45.77

PnL

-$56.97

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.75

Value

$31.15

PnL

-$20.6

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$5.54

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.85

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$4.37

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.56

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$5.39

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.75

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.