Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Molde FK end in a draw?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 25¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes76¢No24¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$356.83

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 24.5¢

-68% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$813.96

Total Shares1,191

Combined PnL-$105.85

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,772

Combined PnL+$462.68

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 82¢	$945	$720.28	-$51.17	62% 2044-1228 (3272)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 25.5¢	$272.15	$545.17	+$273.02	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1	Yesavg 60.8¢	$139.4	$164.63	+$25.24	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$285.13	$162.41	-$122.72	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$204.55	$81.88	-$122.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$80.58	$80.53	-$0.05
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$216.62	$157.37	-$59.24	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.6¢	$143.53	$86.35	-$57.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$73.09	$71.02	-$2.07
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 20¢	$44.59	$128.19	+$83.6	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 16¢	$496.98	$116.79	+$37.27	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$19.59	$62.5	+$42.9	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 45.9¢	$77.97	$52.89	-$25.07	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$43.07	$24.29	-$18.79	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15	$11.48	-$0.08	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$26.57	$6.24	+$0.4	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$21.66	$5.09	+$0.24	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$15.77	$5.04	-$10.74	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$945

Value

$720.28

PnL

-$51.17

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$272.15

Value

$545.17

PnL

+$273.02

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$139.4

Value

$164.63

PnL

+$25.24

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Invested

$285.13

Value

$162.41

PnL

-$122.72

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Both legs:

No$204.5565¢-$122.67

Yes$80.5874¢-$0.05

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$216.62

Value

$157.37

PnL

-$59.24

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Both legs:

No$143.5380.6¢-$57.18

Yes$73.0953¢-$2.07

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$44.59

Value

$128.19

PnL

+$83.6

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$496.98

Value

$116.79

PnL

+$37.27

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.59

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$42.9

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$77.97

Value

$52.89

PnL

-$25.07

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$43.07

Value

$24.29

PnL

-$18.79

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.57

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.66

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.24

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$15.77

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$10.74

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.