Will Lillestrøm SK vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$101.42

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 94.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL-$35.95

Yes6 traders

Total Value$577.62

Total Shares1,670

Combined PnL+$137.37

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79¢	$1.0K	$740	-$50	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60¢	$255.62	$281.83	+$26.21	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.0K	$260	+$50	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$118.25	$213.26	+$95.01	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$76.95	$89.78	+$12.84	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 100¢	$99.13	$88.88	-$10.25	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 83¢	$18.22	$13.48	-$1.64	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$28.71	$12.23	-$16.49	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 79¢	$5	$3.68	-$0.28	62% 2044-1228 (3272)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$0.9	$1.89	+$0.99	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 65.3¢	$5.44	$0.46	-$4.98	53% 70164-61737 (131901)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$740

PnL

-$50

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

Flaznorp

Invested

$255.62

Value

$281.83

PnL

+$26.21

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$260

PnL

+$50

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.25

Value

$213.26

PnL

+$95.01

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.95

Value

$89.78

PnL

+$12.84

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$99.13

Value

$88.88

PnL

-$10.25

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$1.64

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.71

Value

$12.23

PnL

-$16.49

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.28

Record

62%

2044-1228 (3272)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.99

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$4.98

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.