Kristiansund BK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 95¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$399.42

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 94.5¢

+77% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,801

Combined PnL+$580.82

Over6 traders

Total Value$130.9

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL-$181.4

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 48.9¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$46.3	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 49.9¢	$997.21	$1.2K	+$226.81	—
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 65.8¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$129.31	—
NM NM-P	Underavg 45¢	$475.05	$475.4	+$0.35	—
GC GC-P	Underavg 45¢	$471.25	$471.25	+$0	—
dips.	Underavg 85.4¢	$458.84	$435.02	+$22.85	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 44¢	$192	$352	+$160	—
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 64.5¢	$327.46	$291.44	+$80.24	—
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Underavg 45.6¢	$116.67	$117.23	+$0.56	—
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 21.9¢	$576.03	$60.48	-$65.44	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 56¢	$120.36	$47.1	-$73.26	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 73¢	$36.5	$43.5	+$7	—
LR lryyyCTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$103.99	$11.96	-$26.74	—
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$18.27	$6.09	-$12.18	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$6.51	$2.73	-$3.78	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$2.53	$2.53	+$0	—

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,696.74

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$46.3

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$997.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$226.81

Record

—

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,399.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$129.31

Record

—

NM-P

Under

Invested

$475.05

Value

$475.4

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

GC-P

Under

Invested

$471.25

Value

$471.25

PnL

+$0

Record

—

dips.

Under

Invested

$458.84

Value

$435.02

PnL

+$22.85

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$192

Value

$352

PnL

+$160

Record

—

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$327.46

Value

$291.44

PnL

+$80.24

Record

—

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Under

Invested

$116.67

Value

$117.23

PnL

+$0.56

Record

—

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$576.03

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$65.44

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$120.36

Value

$47.1

PnL

-$73.26

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$36.5

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$7

Record

—

lryyyCTR

Over

Invested

$103.99

Value

$11.96

PnL

-$26.74

Record

—

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.27

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$12.18

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.51

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$3.78

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.