Capitals vs. Devils
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (63%) · Devils at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
8
Devils 63%
$4.8K
-$256.16
58.1¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Devilsavg 58¢ | $4.1K | $3.8K | -$245 | — 7-10 (17) |
 fyrskenCTR | Capitalsavg 42¢ | $378 | $373.5 | -$4.5 | 47% 27-30 (57) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Devilsavg 59¢ | $295 | $292.5 | -$2.5 | 4% 2-55 (57) |
RO royalestake | Devilsavg 58¢ | $145.36 | $146.62 | +$1.25 | 5% 10-186 (196) |
WE westing.v1 | Devilsavg 59¢ | $119.7 | $110.57 | -$9.13 | 18% 17-79 (96) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Capitalsavg 41¢ | $50.54 | $51.15 | +$0.62 | 48% 579-615 (1194) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Capitalsavg 41¢ | $34.59 | $38.39 | +$3.8 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Devilsavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $10.9 | -$0.7 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
Invested
$4,059.94
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$245
Record
—
7-10 (17)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$378
Value
$373.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
47%
27-30 (57)
Invested
$295
Value
$292.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
4%
2-55 (57)
Invested
$145.36
Value
$146.62
PnL
+$1.25
Record
5%
10-186 (196)
Invested
$119.7
Value
$110.57
PnL
-$9.13
Record
18%
17-79 (96)
Invested
$50.54
Value
$51.15
PnL
+$0.62
Record
48%
579-615 (1194)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$34.59
Value
$38.39
PnL
+$3.8
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.