Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 29¢ · $514 held · ended Nov 14

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$514.04

Combined PnL

$21.1

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 29¢

-59% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$303.26

Total Shares408

Combined PnL-$15.22

Over6 traders

Total Value$210.78

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$36.32

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 70.5¢	$324.87	$225.07	-$17.95	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 33¢	$45.84	$98.74	+$52.9	48% 543-600 (1143)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 67.1¢	$58.89	$62.15	+$3.27	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 51¢	$29.64	$41.26	+$11.62	41% 345-505 (850)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 74¢	$63.17	$36.65	-$15.86	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$51.71	$19.71	-$5.24	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 73.4¢	$16.57	$16.03	-$0.54	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$17	$8.12	-$8.88	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 51¢	$4.53	$6.3	+$1.78	58% 3662-2648 (6310)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$324.87

Value

$225.07

PnL

-$17.95

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$45.84

Value

$98.74

PnL

+$52.9

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.89

Value

$62.15

PnL

+$3.27

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$29.64

Value

$41.26

PnL

+$11.62

Record

41%

345-505 (850)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$63.17

Value

$36.65

PnL

-$15.86

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$51.71

Value

$19.71

PnL

-$5.24

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$17

Value

$8.12

PnL

-$8.88

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$4.53

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$1.78

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.