Spread: Jets (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (25%) · Blackhawks at 98¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 14

Jets2¢Blackhawks98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blackhawks

Consensus Traders

Blackhawks 25%

Total Value

$607.05

Combined PnL

-$156.09

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 97.6¢

+57% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jets2%

Blackhawks98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blackhawks2 traders

Total Value$456.44

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$131.38

Jets6 traders

Total Value$150.61

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$287.46

Blackhawks — 25%Jets — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJets 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Blackhawksavg 62¢	$313.28	$444.66	+$131.38	55% 515-424 (939)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jetsavg 35.5¢	$154.25	$52.2	-$102.05	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Jetsavg 38¢	$56.62	$52.15	-$4.47	52% 573-538 (1111)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jetsavg 35.4¢	$48.45	$16.44	-$32.01	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
PU purplegattoCTR	Jetsavg 38¢	$135.23	$14.24	-$121	68% 2645-1234 (3879)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jetsavg 36¢	$41.76	$13.92	-$27.84	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Blackhawksavg 62¢	$11.78	$11.78	+$0	47% 312-350 (662)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Jetsavg 37¢	$1.76	$1.67	-$0.1	50% 56-55 (111)

0xheavy888

Blackhawks

Invested

$313.28

Value

$444.66

PnL

+$131.38

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

38791873984189CTR

Jets

Invested

$154.25

Value

$52.2

PnL

-$102.05

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$56.62

Value

$52.15

PnL

-$4.47

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$48.45

Value

$16.44

PnL

-$32.01

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

purplegattoCTR

Jets

Invested

$135.23

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$121

Record

68%

2645-1234 (3879)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$41.76

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$27.84

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

56-55 (111)

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJets 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blackhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.