Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Canucks vs. Jets: O/U 7.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 6

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$417.73

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$355

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$355

Over7 traders

Total Value$555.74

Total Shares1,220

Combined PnL-$62.73

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 71¢	$710	$355	-$355	56% 7923-6330 (14253)
DA dabossrealman	Overavg 48.6¢	$536.41	$323.87	-$65.44	61% 2709-1724 (4433)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 40.6¢	$71.19	$145.32	+$138.16	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
└ Under leg	Underavg 10.5¢	$18.15	$107.68	+$141.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$40.75	$37.64	-$3.11
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$140.57	$108.32	-$32.25	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$111.17	$72.92	-$38.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$29.4	$35.4	+$6
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 61.2¢	$106.43	$91.35	-$15.08	60% 2746-1856 (4602)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 63.4¢	$50.19	$58.97	+$8.78	56% 9121-7277 (16398)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 67¢	$20.54	$40.25	+$19.71	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
DI dips.<$100	Overavg 62.1¢	$58.97	$18.98	-$12.28	47% 10638-12166 (22804)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 64¢	$12.78	$13.38	+$1.2	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 57¢	$8.55	$8.92	+$0.37	46% 1548-1827 (3375)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$710

Value

$355

PnL

-$355

Record

56%

7923-6330 (14253)

dabossrealman

Over

Invested

$536.41

Value

$323.87

PnL

-$65.44

Record

61%

2709-1724 (4433)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$71.19

Value

$145.32

PnL

+$138.16

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

Both legs:

Under$18.1510.5¢+$141.27

Over$40.7540.6¢-$3.11

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$140.57

Value

$108.32

PnL

-$32.25

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

Both legs:

Over$111.1761¢-$38.25

Under$29.449.8¢+$6

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$106.43

Value

$91.35

PnL

-$15.08

Record

60%

2746-1856 (4602)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$50.19

Value

$58.97

PnL

+$8.78

Record

56%

9121-7277 (16398)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$20.54

Value

$40.25

PnL

+$19.71

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$58.97

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$12.28

Record

47%

10638-12166 (22804)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$12.78

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$0.37

Record

46%

1548-1827 (3375)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.