Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Golden Knights (72%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (47%) · Utah at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Golden Knights72¢Utah28¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 47%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$463.04

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 28.5¢

-56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtah at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights72%

Utah28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,012

Combined PnL+$590.72

Utah7 traders

Total Value$784.83

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL-$127.68

Golden Knights — 53%Utah — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Golden Knights) and the top 1000 (14 on Utah) disagree here.

ctrGolden Knights 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Golden Knightsavg 33.1¢	$265.89	$682.55	+$416.66	52% 235-217 (452)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Utahavg 67¢	$319.82	$343.69	+$23.87	37% 30-51 (81)
38 38791873984189CTR	Utahavg 66.4¢	$305.54	$250.41	-$55.13	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
RN1	Golden Knightsavg 33¢	$138.4	$192.93	+$54.52	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Golden Knightsavg 32¢	$106.06	$152.46	+$46.4	47% 17-19 (36)
fyrsken<$100	Golden Knightsavg 31.2¢	$52.33	$77.12	+$24.79	39% 13-20 (33)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Utahavg 59¢	$140.16	$70.07	-$70.09	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Golden Knightsavg 38¢	$41.5	$67.6	+$28.27	49% 786-829 (1615)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Utahavg 66.5¢	$68.48	$55.62	-$12.86	55% 218-176 (394)
NO NotJump<$100	Golden Knightsavg 71¢	$42.6	$42.9	+$0.3	55% 367-301 (668)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Utahavg 62¢	$45.87	$39.58	-$6.29	31% 242-544 (786)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Golden Knightsavg 28¢	$22.55	$37.04	+$14.49	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Golden Knightsavg 38¢	$27.05	$32.33	+$5.28	36% 410-719 (1129)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Utahavg 66.2¢	$27.59	$22.51	-$5.08	55% 729-596 (1325)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Utahavg 50.5¢	$5.05	$2.95	-$2.1	49% 973-998 (1971)

nigiri99

Golden Knights

Invested

$265.89

Value

$682.55

PnL

+$416.66

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Utah

Invested

$319.82

Value

$343.69

PnL

+$23.87

Record

37%

30-51 (81)

38791873984189CTR

Utah

Invested

$305.54

Value

$250.41

PnL

-$55.13

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

RN1

Golden Knights

Invested

$138.4

Value

$192.93

PnL

+$54.52

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x0A77exmm

Golden Knights

Invested

$106.06

Value

$152.46

PnL

+$46.4

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

fyrsken<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$52.33

Value

$77.12

PnL

+$24.79

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

FlaznorpCTR

Utah

Invested

$140.16

Value

$70.07

PnL

-$70.09

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Pan9X<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$41.5

Value

$67.6

PnL

+$28.27

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$68.48

Value

$55.62

PnL

-$12.86

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

NotJump<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$42.6

Value

$42.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$45.87

Value

$39.58

PnL

-$6.29

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$22.55

Value

$37.04

PnL

+$14.49

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

topdogbigboi<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$27.05

Value

$32.33

PnL

+$5.28

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$27.59

Value

$22.51

PnL

-$5.08

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$5.05

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

AvoidUtah at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Golden Knights) and the top 1000 (14 on Utah) disagree here.

ctrGolden Knights 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.