Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 97¢ · $695 held · ended Nov 13

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$695.5

Combined PnL

$84.38

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 96.7¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$678.95

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$183.09

Over4 traders

Total Value$16.55

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$98.71

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 70¢	$401.56	$554.35	+$152.8	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 66¢	$72.43	$97.66	+$25.24	36% 577-1014 (1591)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 70¢	$14	$17.8	+$3.8	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 32.5¢	$98.36	$10.15	-$88.2	23% 62-205 (267)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.83	+$0.38	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 71¢	$3.43	$4.3	+$0.87	56% 324-253 (577)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$9.8	$3.85	-$5.95	35% 700-1328 (2028)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$6.56	$2	-$4.56	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.55	-$0	44% 496-624 (1120)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$401.56

Value

$554.35

PnL

+$152.8

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$72.43

Value

$97.66

PnL

+$25.24

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$17.8

PnL

+$3.8

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.36

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$88.2

Record

23%

62-205 (267)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.87

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.8

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$5.95

Record

35%

700-1328 (2028)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.56

Value

PnL

-$4.56

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.