Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (58%) · Blue Jackets at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Lightning24¢Blue Jackets76¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 58%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$44.59

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 76¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning24%

Blue Jackets76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets11 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,199

Combined PnL+$124.2

Lightning8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,094

Combined PnL-$168.79

Blue Jackets — 58%Lightning — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBlue Jackets 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Blue Jackets 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Blue Jacketsavg 69¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$29.92	41% 49-71 (120)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Lightningavg 31¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$121.16	44% 177-221 (398)
CH chubbytoro	Blue Jacketsavg 69.4¢	$839.47	$876.43	+$36.96	27% 7-19 (26)
NO NordhavenCap	Blue Jacketsavg 74¢	$765	$785.96	+$20.96	23% 58-198 (256)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Blue Jacketsavg 66.7¢	$213.4	$233.6	+$20.2	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lightningavg 33.6¢	$175.24	$125.25	-$49.99	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
MA manoamano	Blue Jacketsavg 67.9¢	$98.93	$110.67	+$11.74	46% 13-15 (28)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 72¢	$69.84	$70.33	+$0.48	43% 119-161 (280)
0xheavy888<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 69¢	$69	$70	+$1	56% 312-248 (560)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Lightningavg 31¢	$60.14	$54.32	-$5.82	52% 388-362 (750)
PA Pan9X<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 74.9¢	$54.62	$52.57	+$1.85	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Lightningavg 40¢	$42.91	$43.44	+$0.54	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
NO NotJump<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 59¢	$38.33	$38.66	+$0.32	54% 529-444 (973)
38 38791873984189	Blue Jacketsavg 70¢	$336	$37.68	+$0.68	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Lightningavg 31¢	$27.28	$34.76	+$7.48	45% 465-578 (1043)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Lightningavg 31¢	$26.94	$34.33	+$7.39	46% 172-204 (376)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Lightningavg 34.6¢	$10.38	$6.6	-$3.78	36% 559-993 (1552)
GH ghorrock<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 69¢	$6.1	$6.19	+$0.09	53% 1117-973 (2090)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Lightningavg 37.8¢	$9.45	$6	-$3.45	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

AnonymousUsername

Blue Jackets

Invested

$2,187.96

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$29.92

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

Forecastication2CTR

Lightning

Invested

$1,252.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$121.16

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

chubbytoro

Blue Jackets

Invested

$839.47

Value

$876.43

PnL

+$36.96

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

NordhavenCap

Blue Jackets

Invested

$765

Value

$785.96

PnL

+$20.96

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Blue Jackets

Invested

$213.4

Value

$233.6

PnL

+$20.2

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

FlaznorpCTR

Lightning

Invested

$175.24

Value

$125.25

PnL

-$49.99

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

manoamano

Blue Jackets

Invested

$98.93

Value

$110.67

PnL

+$11.74

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$69.84

Value

$70.33

PnL

+$0.48

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

0xheavy888<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$69

Value

$70

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$60.14

Value

$54.32

PnL

-$5.82

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

Pan9X<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$54.62

Value

$52.57

PnL

+$1.85

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$42.91

Value

$43.44

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

NotJump<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$38.33

Value

$38.66

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

38791873984189

Blue Jackets

Invested

$336

Value

$37.68

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

lryyyCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$27.28

Value

$34.76

PnL

+$7.48

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$26.94

Value

$34.33

PnL

+$7.39

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$10.38

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$3.78

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

ghorrock<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$9.45

Value

PnL

-$3.45

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBlue Jackets 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Blue Jackets 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.