Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Lightning — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Lightning

Spread: Lightning (-3.5)

Resolved Lightning. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Lightning. The smart money was right.

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Lightning 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.62

Lightning

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Lightning100%

Sabres0%

Lightning3 traders

Total Value$611.95

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$225.14

Sabres7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$224.52

Lightning — 30%Sabres — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lightningavg 43.4¢	$443.63	$512.13	+$68.51	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 37.7¢	$221.55	—	-$221.55
└ Lightning leg	Lightningavg 43.4¢	$222.08	$512.13	+$290.05
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lightningavg 68¢	$316.07	$464.81	+$148.74	53% 1860-1677 (3537)
dips.CTR<$100	Sabresavg 53¢	$91.16	—	-$91.16	42% 230-316 (546)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Lightningavg 47¢	$63.43	$134.96	+$71.53	29% 180-434 (614)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sabresavg 55.9¢	$79.91	—	-$53.41	49% 698-741 (1439)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sabresavg 55.8¢	$39.42	—	-$39.42	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Sabresavg 53¢	$19.58	—	-$19.58	60% 2627-1728 (4355)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Sabresavg 32¢	$8.02	—	-$8.02	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sabresavg 52¢	$8.05	—	-$8.05	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Sabresavg 40¢	$4.87	—	-$4.87	38% 222-363 (585)
poshposh<$100	Lightningavg 60¢	$7.31	$12.18	+$4.87	—