Spread: Penguins (-2.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (55%) · Sharks at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Penguins<1¢Sharks>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sharks

Consensus Traders

Sharks 55%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$131.71

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 99.6¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penguins0%

Sharks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sharks6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,163

Combined PnL+$280.02

Penguins5 traders

Total Value$22.49

Total Shares625

Combined PnL-$148.31

Sharks — 55%Penguins — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPenguins 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Sharksavg 54.9¢	$373.87	$626.27	+$252.41	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Sharksavg 92¢	$297.39	$297.39	+$0	60% 2827-1912 (4739)
PA Pan9X	Sharksavg 67.8¢	$129.81	$62.05	+$15.38	47% 896-997 (1893)
NO NotJump<$100	Sharksavg 86¢	$43	$46	+$3	54% 386-329 (715)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Sharksavg 78.5¢	$31.42	$39.82	+$8.4	82% 337-74 (411)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 24.7¢	$17.77	$16.38	-$1.39	37% 470-810 (1280)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Penguinsavg 45¢	$17	$3.02	-$13.98	32% 266-576 (842)
RN1<$100	Sharksavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.96	+$0.83	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 8.6¢	$28.32	$1.48	-$26.84	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Penguinsavg 50¢	$106	$0.95	-$105.05	48% 82-89 (171)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 21¢	$1.71	$0.65	-$1.06	53% 806-703 (1509)

38791873984189

Sharks

Invested

$373.87

Value

$626.27

PnL

+$252.41

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Sharks

Invested

$297.39

Value

$297.39

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

2827-1912 (4739)

Pan9X

Sharks

Invested

$129.81

Value

$62.05

PnL

+$15.38

Record

47%

896-997 (1893)

NotJump<$100

Sharks

Invested

$43

Value

$46

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Sharks

Invested

$31.42

Value

$39.82

PnL

+$8.4

Record

82%

337-74 (411)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$17.77

Value

$16.38

PnL

-$1.39

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$17

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$13.98

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

RN1<$100

Sharks

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.83

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$28.32

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$26.84

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Penguins

Invested

$106

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$105.05

Record

48%

82-89 (171)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

806-703 (1509)

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPenguins 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sharks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.