Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oilers, while the market favors Flyers (73%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Oilers (-2.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (50%) · Oilers at 28¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Oilers28¢Flyers72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.07

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 27.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOilers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers28%

Flyers73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers5 traders

Total Value$503.36

Total Shares716

Combined PnL+$3.66

Oilers5 traders

Total Value$620.82

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL-$13.74

Flyers — 50%Oilers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlyers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOilers 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456	Flyersavg 70¢	$412.07	$412.07	-$0	50% 22-22 (44)
nigiri99CTR	Oilersavg 30¢	$398.03	$372.07	-$12.96	52% 235-217 (452)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Oilersavg 30¢	$213	$205.9	-$7.1	38% 99-159 (258)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Flyersavg 70¢	$28	$29	+$1	83% 321-68 (389)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Oilersavg 16¢	$12.8	$22	+$9.2	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Flyersavg 66¢	$19.8	$21.75	+$1.95	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Flyersavg 70¢	$20	$20.71	+$0.71	90% 61-7 (68)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Flyersavg 70¢	$19.83	$19.83	-$0	23% 38-129 (167)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Oilersavg 31.9¢	$17.16	$14.82	-$2.35	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Oilersavg 29.9¢	$6.56	$6.03	-$0.53	36% 410-719 (1129)

tomb2456

Flyers

Invested

$412.07

Value

$412.07

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

nigiri99CTR

Oilers

Invested

$398.03

Value

$372.07

PnL

-$12.96

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Forecastication2CTR

Oilers

Invested

$213

Value

$205.9

PnL

-$7.1

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Flyers

Invested

$28

Value

$29

PnL

+$1

Record

83%

321-68 (389)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$12.8

Value

$22

PnL

+$9.2

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Flyers

Invested

$19.8

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$1.95

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Vampiro1<$100

Flyers

Invested

$20

Value

$20.71

PnL

+$0.71

Record

90%

61-7 (68)

Oddstorm<$100

Flyers

Invested

$19.83

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

38-129 (167)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$17.16

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$2.35

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$6.56

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.53

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidOilers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFlyers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOilers 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.