Flyers vs. Flames

2 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (12%) · Flyers at 54¢ · $239K held · ends Nov 9

Flyers54¢Flames46¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 12%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$239.5K

Combined PnL

$234.6

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

2 of 17 top traders (12%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flyers54%

Flames47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers2 traders

Total Value$131.2K

Total Shares245,169

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Flames15 traders

Total Value$108.1K

Total Shares230,315

Combined PnL-$991.48

Flyers — 12%Flames — 88%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Flyersavg 53¢	$122.0K	$123.2K	+$1.2K	49% 328-348 (676)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$66.5K	$65.8K	-$707.54	48% 521-567 (1088)
nigiri99CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$12.6K	$12.5K	-$105.3	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$100	55% 244-196 (440)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Flyersavg 53¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$74.8	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
RO royalestakeCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$75	47% 425-472 (897)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	-$73.85	51% 1149-1104 (2253)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$25.34	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$17.5	52% 1343-1237 (2580)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$11.04	64% 2155-1193 (3348)
38 38791873984189CTR	Flamesavg 46.6¢	$674.01	$672.39	-$1.62	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Flamesavg 48.2¢	$538.91	$519.41	-$19.5	51% 465-452 (917)
WE westing.v1ARB<$100	Flyersavg 51¢	$194.23	$197.08	+$2.85	49% 61-63 (124)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 51¢	$122.4	$126	+$3.6
└ Flames leg	Flamesavg 48¢	$71.82	$71.08	-$0.75
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Flamesavg 47¢	$188	$186	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Flamesavg 48.3¢	$97.13	$95.48	-$1.65	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 46.4¢	$33.67	$33.73	+$0.06	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Flamesavg 51¢	$19.05	$17.74	-$1.31	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Flamesavg 47¢	$9.36	$9.45	+$0.1	50% 27970-27422 (55392)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Flyers

Invested

$122,010.59

Value

$123.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

328-348 (676)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Flames

Invested

$66,509

Value

$65.8K

PnL

-$707.54

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

nigiri99CTR

Flames

Invested

$12,567.67

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$105.3

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

ChonkVisionCTR

Flames

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

55%

244-196 (440)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Flyers

Invested

$7,928.85

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$74.8

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

royalestakeCTR

Flames

Invested

$7,050

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$75

Record

47%

425-472 (897)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Flames

Invested

$6,941.9

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$73.85

Record

51%

1149-1104 (2253)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,381.84

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.34

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Flames

Invested

$1,645

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

52%

1343-1237 (2580)

darkumbreon88CTR

Flames

Invested

$1,037.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.04

Record

64%

2155-1193 (3348)

38791873984189CTR

Flames

Invested

$674.01

Value

$672.39

PnL

-$1.62

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

PIPIZINCTR

Flames

Invested

$538.91

Value

$519.41

PnL

-$19.5

Record

51%

465-452 (917)

westing.v1ARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$194.23

Value

$197.08

PnL

+$2.85

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

Both legs:

Flyers$122.451¢+$3.6

Flames$71.8248¢-$0.75

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Flames

Invested

$188

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$97.13

Value

$95.48

PnL

-$1.65

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$33.67

Value

$33.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$19.05

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$1.31

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

sentrioCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

2 of 17 top traders (12%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.