Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $175 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$175.11
-$94.73
64.3¢ → 99.5¢
+55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $50.28 | $52.08 | +$1.81 | 38% 1308-2106 (3414) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $42.57 | $45.44 | +$2.87 | 50% 2685-2651 (5336) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $40.57 | $44.67 | +$4.1 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $21.15 | $18.23 | -$2.92 | 42% 374-523 (897) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $6.41 | $10.39 | +$3.98 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.65 | -$0.15 | 48% 670-715 (1385) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $93.33 | $1.41 | -$91.92 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $12.74 | $0.25 | -$12.5 | 34% 170-325 (495) |
Invested
$50.28
Value
$52.08
PnL
+$1.81
Record
38%
1308-2106 (3414)
Invested
$42.57
Value
$45.44
PnL
+$2.87
Record
50%
2685-2651 (5336)
Invested
$40.57
Value
$44.67
PnL
+$4.1
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
Invested
$21.15
Value
$18.23
PnL
-$2.92
Record
42%
374-523 (897)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$3.98
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
670-715 (1385)
Invested
$93.33
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$91.92
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Invested
$12.74
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$12.5
Record
34%
170-325 (495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.