Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rangers vs. Canucks: O/U 8.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 34¢ · $691 held · ended Nov 14

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$691.26

Combined PnL

$213.52

Smart Money Entry

28.9¢ → 33.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$613.58

Total Shares1,394

Combined PnL+$213.09

Under3 traders

Total Value$77.69

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$0.43

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 33¢	$311.45	$415.26	+$103.82	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 12¢	$30.84	$109.12	+$82.24	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 68¢	$83.13	$68.46	-$14.67	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$45.26	$46.32	+$1.05	49% 615-643 (1258)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$7.28	$24.64	+$17.36	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$6.6	$8.8	+$2.2	53% 750-672 (1422)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56¢	$10.42	$8.32	+$15.5	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$2.25	$7.63	+$5.37	37% 841-1416 (2257)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.44	$1.07	+$0.63	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 81¢	$1.31	$0.91	-$0.4	76% 165-53 (218)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$0.32	$0.74	+$0.42	32% 147-308 (455)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$311.45

Value

$415.26

PnL

+$103.82

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$30.84

Value

$109.12

PnL

+$82.24

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$83.13

Value

$68.46

PnL

-$14.67

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.26

Value

$46.32

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.28

Value

$24.64

PnL

+$17.36

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$10.42

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$15.5

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$5.37

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.44

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.4

Record

76%

165-53 (218)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.42

Record

32%

147-308 (455)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.