Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Islanders vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 35¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 10

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$144.21

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 35¢

-32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,918

Combined PnL+$195.34

Under3 traders

Total Value$210.64

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$51.13

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 60.4¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$534.18	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.4¢	$4.3K	$3.7K	-$560.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$26.67
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$79.44	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.8¢	$527.64	$675.87	+$148.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$789.27	$561.6	-$227.68
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Overavg 47¢	$542.47	$692.52	+$150.05	1% 2-190 (192)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 47¢	$416.42	$531.6	+$115.18	52% 92-86 (178)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 60.9¢	$558.59	$399.94	-$116.05	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.9¢	$404.94	$285.94	-$134.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$96	$114	+$18
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 60.5¢	$237.88	$235.92	-$1.96	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 49¢	$221.24	$167.06	-$54.18	23% 176-586 (762)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 66.8¢	$76.75	$68.96	-$7.79	29% 115-287 (402)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 58.9¢	$158.63	$65.54	-$19.53	47% 329-371 (700)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 60.8¢	$69.9	$50.03	-$19.88	63% 2176-1291 (3467)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 40.3¢	$34.29	$39.14	+$4.85	12% 22-166 (188)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 57.8¢	$54.9	$34.68	-$20.23	41% 159-232 (391)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$30.5	$30	-$0.5	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$6.24	$4.44	-$1.8	57% 70-52 (122)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,533.41

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$534.18

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Both legs:

Over$4,286.9560.4¢-$560.85

Under$1,246.4546.5¢+$26.67

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,316.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$79.44

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

Both legs:

Over$527.6446.8¢+$148.23

Under$789.2752¢-$227.68

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Over

Invested

$542.47

Value

$692.52

PnL

+$150.05

Record

2-190 (192)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$416.42

Value

$531.6

PnL

+$115.18

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$558.59

Value

$399.94

PnL

-$116.05

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Over$404.9460.9¢-$134.05

Under$9648¢+$18

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$237.88

Value

$235.92

PnL

-$1.96

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$221.24

Value

$167.06

PnL

-$54.18

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.75

Value

$68.96

PnL

-$7.79

Record

29%

115-287 (402)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$158.63

Value

$65.54

PnL

-$19.53

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.9

Value

$50.03

PnL

-$19.88

Record

63%

2176-1291 (3467)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$34.29

Value

$39.14

PnL

+$4.85

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.9

Value

$34.68

PnL

-$20.23

Record

41%

159-232 (391)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.5

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$6.24

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$1.8

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.