Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ducks, while the market favors Islanders (80%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Islanders (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (33%) · Ducks at 21¢ · $905 held · ended Nov 15

Islanders80¢Ducks20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 33%

Total Value

$904.93

Combined PnL

-$514.05

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 20.5¢

-65% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidDucks at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Islanders80%

Ducks21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders6 traders

Total Value$631.69

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL+$13.97

Ducks3 traders

Total Value$273.24

Total Shares1,366

Combined PnL-$528.02

Islanders — 67%Ducks — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Islandersavg 41¢	$455.78	$450.31	-$5.46	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ducksavg 58.6¢	$762.62	$253.66	-$508.96	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Islandersavg 49¢	$50.96	$83.72	+$32.76	58% 3865-2801 (6666)
38 38791873984189<$100	Islandersavg 40¢	$54.03	$54.71	+$0.68	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
PA Pan9X<$100	Islandersavg 38.3¢	$33.7	$33.88	+$0.18	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Ducksavg 59.2¢	$32.18	$10.6	-$21.58	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ducksavg 61.5¢	$6.46	$8.98	+$2.52	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Islandersavg 37¢	$14.8	$5.8	-$9	83% 921-190 (1111)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Islandersavg 37.5¢	$8.45	$3.27	-$5.18	39% 1485-2329 (3814)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Islanders

Invested

$455.78

Value

$450.31

PnL

-$5.46

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

FlaznorpCTR

Ducks

Invested

$762.62

Value

$253.66

PnL

-$508.96

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Islanders

Invested

$50.96

Value

$83.72

PnL

+$32.76

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

38791873984189<$100

Islanders

Invested

$54.03

Value

$54.71

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

Pan9X<$100

Islanders

Invested

$33.7

Value

$33.88

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$32.18

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$21.58

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$6.46

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$2.52

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Islanders

Invested

$14.8

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$9

Record

83%

921-190 (1111)

topdogbigboi<$100

Islanders

Invested

$8.45

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$5.18

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

Research grade

AvoidDucks at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.