Predators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 93¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.66

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 92.5¢

+28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,753

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares7,509

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Underavg 72.2¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$345	48% 251-267 (518)
HI hi774c	Underavg 72¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$306.81	22% 161-581 (742)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 73.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$229.81	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 27.6¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$983.95	5% 10-203 (213)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 73¢	$255.5	$301	+$45.5	32% 150-313 (463)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 62¢	$133.92	$199.8	+$65.88	49% 620-647 (1267)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 76¢	$97.28	$118.4	+$21.12	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 83.9¢	$91	$45.2	-$2.86	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 73.7¢	$13.98	$16.31	+$2.34	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$18.48	$9.9	-$8.58	18% 56-264 (320)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$13.97	$7.52	-$6.45	27% 29-79 (108)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$21.76	$4.8	-$16.96	33% 146-291 (437)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$0.43	$0.11	-$0.32	37% 872-1456 (2328)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$1,805

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$345

Record

48%

251-267 (518)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$1,577.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$306.81

Record

22%

161-581 (742)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,146.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$229.81

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$983.95

Record

10-203 (213)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$255.5

Value

$301

PnL

+$45.5

Record

32%

150-313 (463)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$133.92

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$65.88

Record

49%

620-647 (1267)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$97.28

Value

$118.4

PnL

+$21.12

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$91

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$2.86

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$13.98

Value

$16.31

PnL

+$2.34

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.48

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$8.58

Record

18%

56-264 (320)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.97

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$6.45

Record

27%

29-79 (108)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.76

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$16.96

Record

33%

146-291 (437)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.32

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.